It’s been fun here at “Beating Vegas” all football season. We finished about 10 games over 50% so all in all, not a bad season. Now it all comes to the end with the biggest sporting event of the year – the Super Bowl. The NFL’s most valuable and exciting player, Cam Newton on one side and one of the NFL’s most recognizable celebrities, Peyton Manning, on the other. Vegas knows that this is their last chance to bank on football action for at least six months and they like to throw EVERYTHING at you. The trick is to not bet all over the place, but to use your head and think logically – eh, forget logic, it’s the Super Bowl – it’s a time to let loose, drink, eat and have fun – BUT, here is my advice to you on those prop-bets and the game itself.
Total Receptions By Ronnie Hillman:
Yeah, this is a weird and random place to start but it could be easy money come Super Bowl Sunday. Ronnie Hillman is the smaller speed back, that shares the Broncos back field with the more physical CJ Anderson. Hillman has more of the game breaker speed in him, but he is prone to injury and is known to fumble. Anderson though will have his hands full trying to run the ball all day against a Panthers defense that allows less than four yards a carry. The Broncos will look for ways to get the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands quickly all game and they will look to slow down the Panthers’ blitz attacks. Screen passes and check downs in the direction of Ronnie Hillman will help the Broncos in achieving that. The over/under for total receptions by Ronnie Hillman is set at 1.5. Hillman is dangerous in open space and his speed is deadly once he takes off. Take the over – it’s probably the easiest bet of the day and the payout is at +155.
Total Field Goals Scored By Broncos:
The Denver Broncos have a three and out percentage of 26.13% and that number should be there or even worse against one of the NFL’s best defenses in Carolina. The Broncos are not a high octane offense anymore due to Manning’s declining ability as a quarterback and Kubiak’s predictable, conservative offense. The Broncos won’t get cute on fourth down when in the Panthers territory and they have a lot of faith in their kicker Brandon McManus who was perfect kicking from 20-39 yards this season. From 40-49 yards out he was 5-8 and from 50 yards are more he was 5-7. Points will be hard to come by for Denver but getting at least three field goals should be possible. The over/under is 2.5 with a payout of +340 and that’s definitely worth the shot, at least for a small dime, for more than three times the payout.
What color will Beyonce’s footwear be when she comes on stage for the halftime show?
If your “guy” has this prop bet, consider these lines: Black: 3/2, Gold/Brown: 5/2, White: 11/14, Silver/Grey: 19/4 and any other color: 7/1. Beyonce is a diva. Beyonce is a trendsetter and (much like myself) a “walking fashion statement.” Last time she performed at the Super Bowl, she had on black boots. She wouldn’t be caught dead wearing something similar at the same function a few years later, so scratch that. She probably won’t match up with Coldplay’s bland attire and she might want to separate herself from Bruno Mars, who is pretty unpredictable. To prove her “queen” like ways, I expect her to go with something flashy and at the same time classy which is why the Silver/Grey line is more to my liking here.
How many times will “dab” or “dabbing” be said by the announcers during the broadcast?
The over/under for this line is 2. Phil Simms and Jim Nantz are probably the most out of touch guys to ever call a football game. Sometimes they don’t even know what’s going on during a football game so do you really think they have a chance to know about anything in pop-culture? If it wasn’t for the commercials, I’d watch this game with the mute button on. Take the under and good luck to us all having to deal with these two lame asses. . .
Super Bowl MVP:
There are only two names to look at here, Cam Newton who is the favorite at -145 and Luke Kuechly who is a long shot at +1400. Cam is the obvious choice because the offense runs through him, he is dynamic and the NFL is more likely to give quarterbacks the credit for a win, than anyone else. Luke Kuechly is an interesting name though, especially considering the payout. This game has a slight chance of being a low scoring defensive battle or a high chance of being a blowout in favor of the Panthers. Either way, Kuechly is a player who finds himself around the action and the football often. If the defense is all the way dominant, it will be mostly because of his doing. Eight tackles, coupled with a forced fumble, recovered fumble or interception might be enough for a defensive player to become MVP of this game, and who would be more likely to achieve that than Kuechly?
The Super Bowl Line:
The Carolina Panthers are a six point favorite in this game against the Denver Broncos and if you’ve read this article, you can guess where this paragraph will lean. . . Peyton Manning is a fraction of what he once was and against this secondary, he might be in for one of his worst performances since. . . the last time he played in a Super Bowl. Manning has never been a “big game” quarterback, even in his prime, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see him struggle in this one. Denver’s defense will be on the field for most of the game and have their back’s up against the wall a lot. This works in favor for a Carolina offense that likes to be physical. Cam is a difference maker, and there is really no way to coach how to stop him, because even he has no idea what he’s set to do at any given moment. Carolina and Denver may be close in the first half, but in the second half Carolina pulls away and wins by at least 15 points.
The Pick: Carolina -6
Hope you guys have enjoyed “Beating Vegas” this football season. We’ll be back next year and continue our winning ways here. Thank you for checking back each week and as always: “GOOD LUCK AND WAGER WISELY!”