Beating Vegas has been ON FIRE with it’s college football picks! So far this year we are 11 for 13 so let’s see if we can keep that luck going. Safe to say everyone took a hit with the NFL last week as two big time favorites this year in Pittsburgh and Arizona looked flat out awful. New week, new story – so keep checking for this column weekly and visit mybookie.ag so you can beat the NCAA and NFL odds. . .
Tennessee Titans +6.5 at Houston Texans
At this point, some teams and players start shaping up into what they will be for the rest of the year. For the Titans, this looks like a squad that is confused on the field and has a quarterback who is suffering from the sophomore jinx. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota appears to be thinking too much. Usually thinking is a good thing, but he hasn’t been “reacting” to situations quick enough in the pocket – he’s somewhere between ‘trying to make the big play’ and ‘trying not to turn over the ball’ – and failing at both. The Texans were just shut out on National television by a third string, rookie quarterback and are now playing in the comfort of their own home against a division rival they know well. The Texans have beaten the Titans in eight of their last ten meetings, and they’ve done so by nearly twenty points per win. This Titans team is far from making the jump to being competitive and they’ve got a quarterback who seems to be trying to drive this offense from the back seat. Take the better coach and better depth (even without J.J. Watt).
The Pick: Texans -6.5
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 at New York Jets
The big story here is that Russell Wilson suffered a sprain ACL in his left knee last week against the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks are expecting Wilson to play, even if not at 100% which will work right into the Jets’ hands. Wilson hasn’t been “killing it” this year anyhow. In three games he has two touchdown passes, an interception and a lost fumble. The Seahawks offense doesn’t know what it wants to be: “Smash-mouth”
, Aerial – or balanced. Regardless of what they think they are – they’ve looked really sloppy so far this year. Speaking of “sloppy” . . . The New York Jets were downright pitiful last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 24-3. Well at least their offense looked pitiful. . .Eh, Ryan Fitzpatrick looked pitiful. Fitzy threw six interceptions and appeared to be confused with which jersey color he should’ve been throwing to the whole game. The Jets will keep this game simple against a Seahawks defense that will feast on those floater passes Fitzy likes to throw. This game will be ugly, but it will be in New York, meaning Seattle has to make that coast to coast travel that all teams dread. The Jets will be looking to rebound against a wounded Russell Wilson. The public will be riding the Seahawks on pure reputation against the Jets – the public is usually wrong.
The Pick: The Jets +2.5
Illinois +21 at Nebraska
Talk about two universities going in completely different directions. . . yikes. Illinois is the bad side of the coin as it looks like head coach Lovie Smith may have taken on more than he can handle with this roster and it’s lack of talent. On the heavier side of the coin is Nebraska, who is so far, undefeated and both sides of the ball seem to be in sync with each other. Illinois has gotten shelved by UNC and Western Michigan and although quarterback Wes Lunt isn’t a bad player, it’s the lack of talent around him. The offensive line isn’t impressive and outside of wide receiver Marcus Turner, they lack little to know play making ability. Nebraska is led by quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. who has been a duel-threat nightmare for defenses so far this year averaging over 300 yards and three touchdowns a game. The offense has two capable running backs and Nebraska is a team that can go four wide at the wide receiver position and depend on all of them. The trend in Vegas is that Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in it’s last five games, while Illinois is 1-5 ATS in it’s last six games. Expect that trend to continue, even with this big number – Illinois just can’t match up with Nebraska on the field.
The Pick: Nebraska -21
Western Michigan -3.5 at Central Michigan
You got to love the Mac Conference. We won with Western Michigan earlier this year in an easy cover against Illinois (yes, the team that we’re going against this week as well) and this week they’re going against Central Michigan. Both squads average about 41 points a game between them and defensively they allow on average about 23 points a game between them. Last year the winner of this game was Western Michigan 41-39. The over/under for this game is set at 55 and this is the kind of game where these two will be lighting each other up until late in the fourth quarter.
The Pick: The Over 55
If You Must: Take Wisconsin +10.5 against Michigan. Don’t like riding a team two weeks in a row, but they were the underdogs last week and flat out won, this week, Wisconsin is the first true test for Michigan who has been playing cup cakes so far this season. Michigan is playing a team now that will “punch back” and they haven’t faced that at all this year. Michigan will most likely still come away with a win, but Wisconsin will hang around. This might be a preview of the Big Ten Title game and both teams know it.
4 Game Tease of the Week: Dolphins +19, Browns +19.5, Raiders +15.5 and Stanford/Washington Under 57
Good Luck and Wager Wisely!