Tag Archives: Alabama

Beating Vegas: Beginning of the End

It’s that time of the year where the college football season ends and the NFL season is coming close to it’s own end.  For some who’s teams had a horrible season, or for those who chose to ignore the advice from “Beating Vegas” you’re glad the season has come to and end.  For those on the other side of the spectrum though . . .

Buffalo Bills +9 at Jacksonville Jaguars; Points Total: 39

I found myself cheering for the Buffalo Bills to get into the playoffs last weekend.  I remember when I was a kid, how amazing those teams were with Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas and Jim Kelly – albeit they never won a Super Bowl together. . .and the last time the Bill were in the playoffs – Doug Flutie was their starting quarterback (easy to see why they came up empty with a Super Bowl championship in that effort).   Now the Bills, after a quarterback controversy and fans of the NFL not knowing what to quite make of them – are in the NFL playoffs.  They find themselves up against a team that is foreign to the playoffs as well – the Jacksonville Jaguars.  It’s been a 10 year drought for the Jaguars and this year they have the NFL’s number one ranked defense.  If it’s true that defense wins championships, the Jaguars should have it made – but we all know it’s never that easy.  The Jaguars have been steadily forcing a rushing attack on offense, led by rookie running back  Leonard Fournette.  Fournette has seen most defenses stack the box against him this year, so his rushing average of 3.9 yards a carry and his total rushing yards of 1040 may not blow people away, but if he’s anything – he’s reliable.  The pressure is all on Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles.  His 21 touchdown passes are easily forgotten by the fact he’s had 13 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles on the year.  Bortles just never has amounted to the hype he had when he came out of college in 2014.  He should have some decent looks when going against a secondary that has allowed quarterbacks to complete 65% of their passes.  Buffalo as an offense though only has more total yardage than three other teams in the league (Bears, Colts and Bengals).  This is another team who’s offensive focus is the run, and their leading rusher LeSean McCoy averages just at 4 yards a carry – and is a game time decision as of now (January 2nd).  The Bills do not have the receiving talent to challenge the best secondary in the league, so this one should be a tough go for Tyrod Taylor and the Bills.  Expect the Jags to win this game, but don’t expect a lot of fireworks.

The Pick: The Under at 39

Tennessee Titans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs; Points Total: 45

It happens every year.  One team does it, every year.  One team slips into the playoffs and nobody has a clue as to “why.”  This year, that team is the Tennessee Titans.  The Kansas City Chiefs on the other hand started the season looking like the best team in football. . .and then they looked like a totally different squad who could miss the playoffs.  As fate would have it though, the Chiefs finished off the season with four wins in a row, and seem to resemble more of what we saw earlier in the season.  Kansas City’s pass defense should have a walk in the park, considering they hold the opposition to a 57% completion percentage (second best in the league) and are going up against Marcus Mariota who is one of the worst road-quarterbacks in the NFL.  Forget about “the road” though, Mariota has been flat out bad for the better part of the 2017 season. The Titans are relying on a rushing attack led by Derrick Henry, and his success will be determined by how much of a threat Mariota is – the problem is – he won’t be.  There is no reason to believe Mariota will revive any of his Oregon Duck majestics to come away with a win here.  The only thing about laying down this many points with the Chiefs is that Andy Reid forgets how to coach once he gets to the playoffs.  Kansas City is 6-2 at home and they are going up against a quarterback who has a rating of 69.1 on the road with five touchdowns and eleven interceptions.

The Pick:  The Under at 45 points and the Chiefs -9

The College Football National Championship:

Alabama Crimson Tide -4 versus Georgia Bulldogs; Points Total: 45

We had another successful year in college football here at Beating Vegas, and this game is being spoken of here, just because it must be.  This is in no way a “lock” but just a “lean” at the moment.  For all the talk of the Big 10 or ACC being the best division in College Football – the SEC seems to stand above all conferences again.   Offensively they both want to run it down the opposition’s throats and defensively, they are just suffocating offenses.  This time around it’s Nick Saban going up against Kirby Smart, a former Saban assistant.  Both know each other well and one can expect this one to be an old school grudge match.  The issue here in this grudge match is that, although both programs perform and are run similarly – Bama is just a little better as a run defense and a little less prone to turning over the ball.  It’s those slight differences that can prove to do Georgia’s undoing.   The world may be in love with Georgia freshman quarterback Jake Fromm but typically the non-mobile quarterbacks with average arm strength don’t fare well against Saban’s defensive schemes.  Expect Saban to stack the box and challenge Fromm, who will have to see his wideouts matched up against some of the toughest secondary players in the nation.  Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts isn’t the most prolific passer in the nation, but he knows all he has to do is NOT turn the ball over as his 15 touchdowns and 1 interception on the season prove.  Hurts is part of a three headed monster that runs the ball, along with running backs Bo Scarborough and Damien Harris.  This Bama defense holds opponents to less than three yards a carry but Georgia’s running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel average 6.2 and 7.2 yards per carry, respectively.  Much like the Jaguars / Bills game we mentioned earlier, expect this one to be a smash mouth low scoring game but in the end, the student does NOT surpass the teacher.

The Pick: Alabama -4

Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

twitter @GeeSteelio


Beating Vegas: Ironclad Locks

Alabama -4.5 at Auburn

This scene is all-too-familiar.  It was just a couple of weeks ago that Auburn was a slight home underdog to the number one team in the nation, Georgia and came up not only covering, but winning. . . and winning BIG.  Once again the table is set up in a very similar fashion.  These two teams have offenses and defenses that are in the SEC’s top three and this will be the eighty-first meeting between these two teams, in a rivalry known as the “Iron Bowl.”  Whoever wins this game will get to play Georgia for the SEC title, which in turn helps to solidify a spot in the College Football Playoff.     Even looking at it by position: Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver – they are pretty much even throughout.  Auburn has a history of being the home dog that ruins things for Alabama.  This year, there is added incentive as they not only can play the role of “spoiler” but also help themselves in getting closer to the title of “Champion.”

The Pick: Auburn +4.5

Florida Atlantic -21 at NC Charlotte

Well, well, well. . . we finally get to talk about a game that includes the name: Lane Kiffin.  Kiffin took the head coaching job at Florida Atlantic, in hopes to jump-start his career as the head guy.  Kiffin and the Owls had a rough go of things starting out the season 1-3 but now the Owls are winners of seven straight games and this is much do to them becoming the tenth-best rushing attack in college football.  Running back, Devin Singletary (possibly the best running back you never hear spoken of) has racked up 24 touchdowns, averages 6.6 yards a carry and is looking to add to his 1524 rushing yards.  Considering how the Charlotte 49ers are allowing nearly 200 yards a game on the ground at a 4.5 yard clip – it’s lunchtime for Singletary and this Owl offensive line.   Last week against this defense Southern Miss running back Ito Smith racked up 3 touchdowns and 153 yards.  Charlotte can run the ball pretty well, but have red-zone issues like very few do in college football.  Speaking of the red-zone, Kiffin’s Owls have a 95% success rate of scoring when they get in the twenty yard line while the 49ers ALLOW opponents to score 92.11% of the time.  Something else that may interest those looking to wager on the side of Florida Atlantic: Lane Kiffin isn’t shy when it comes to pouring it on, embarrassing opponents and proving a point.  You want that kind of coach when covering a three-touchdown-defecit.

The Pick: Florida Atlantic -21

Texas Tech +8.5 at Texas

Head coach Kliff Kingsbury is the cool-kid-in-school.  Even at a school where he is nearly twenty years older than most of the students – Kingsbury is still the king of cool.  Unfortunately for him, his good looks and charisma may be cooling off with the Texas Tech faithful.  The Red Raiders are currently 5-6  with all of their wins coming against below-average competition (sorry, Houston but it’s been a down-year for you guys and you know it).   When your defense allows a 65% completion percentage and 4.3 yards a carry, that just means the offense needs to carry all the weight.  For all that matters, the offense does try and it shows – the Red Raiders have the the 8th most passing yards in college football, along with fifth highest pass completion percentage at 68.9%.  Those numbers will be put to the test by a Texas Longhorns defense holding opponents to a 59% completion percentage and 3 yards per rush attempt.   Texas has shown improvement from the previous two seasons and have competed in games that last year would’ve been completely lob-sided.   Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger will get the start for the Longhorns and although he isn’t the most polished passer, he is a dual threat QB who should give the Red Raiders defense fits.  Texas Tech will struggle to get their offense off the ground in this one.  And for four quarters of football, this defense will get worn down and give up the big plays to the Longhorns.

The Pick: Texas -8.5


Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

Twitter @GeeSteelio


Beating Vegas: NCAA Team Win Totals

It’s almost that time of year.

Okay let’s be honest, as soon as Vegas puts out their over/under for team win totals, you know that the time has come for football season.  Here are some teams that Beating Vegas just can’t avoid putting something on before the seasons kicks off.  We did extremely well last year so be smart and follow along.

Alabama Crimson Tide : 11 Wins

When factoring the total over/unders for a team you first look at the “easy” wins.  For as great as Bama is, and I’m truly not taking anything away from them, they do schedule some cupcakes.  Considering the SEC isn’t what it once was, that is disappointing.  Wins against Colorado State, Mercer and Fresno State should be an absolute “no contest.”  Vanderbilt (who we’ll get to later) will be a doormat in the SEC, Ole Miss is falling apart and Tennessee – well they are what they are: A team that just isn’t good enough to beat Bama.  The rest of the schedule is intriguing. Remember what I said about cupcakes?  Forget about that already – the Crimson Tide open the season in outer conference play against Florida State.  This is a monster game in week one because both of these teams are considered playoff-worthy and this game could determine their fates early.  Bama opens up as a 7 point favorite but they lost a lot of talent on that defense. Not saying they won’t be good, but not as dominant as last year.  Arkansas gets to play Bama after the Tide have games against Ole Miss and at Texas A&M and this offensive line might be able to push back on Bama more than they’re used to.  The games against LSU and Auburn are too close to call and this year it might be just too much for Bama to go nearly perfect. 11 is just a hard number. . . even for Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide this year.

The Pick: Under

Auburn Tigers: 8.5 Wins

Last year this Auburn team went 8-5, including a season opener where they lost to eventual National Champs Clemson, and losses to Alabama and Oklahoma to finish off the season (teams that finished #2 and #5 respectively).  The Auburn Tigers are expected to go with Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham at QB, and if there is anything to say about Baylor QB’s it’s that they are usually athletic and are use to throwing the ball a lot. In Auburn’s system though, he’ll be asked to make reads that aren’t foreign to him and have a two-headed monster at running back this year with Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson.  Losing only three games with a squad that has eight returning starters on both side of the ball seems too easy.  They WILL go on the road and beat Clemson this year and after that the only two games that should pose a threat to them is their road game against LSU, and the season ending Iron Bowl, which they host this year against the Crimson Tide.

The Pick: Over

Boston College Eagles: 4 Wins

Boston College is a team I usually look at a lot during the season. Not because the team is exciting or moves me emotionally but because they are typically coached well defensively and are boring on offense.  So games tend to go under.  Last year though, this defense saw the emergence of the ACC as possibly being the best conference in college football (we can argue which is the best at a later time, folks) they got lit up Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech.  Give the Eagles credit though – they schedule themselves against all division one schools, no cup cakes, so to speak – with that being said no game is easy when you’re below average.  They can beat UConn (which is on a neutral site) and Central Michigan – maybe.

The Pick: Under

Wisconsin Badgers: 10.5 Wins

I was just speaking highly of how the ACC might be the best conference in college football, but the Big 10 may have something to say about that.  While the rest of the world shakes in their boots over an Urban Meyer coached Ohio State team, marvels at the insanity of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan or how the masses seemingly fell in love with Penn State again because of James Franklin’s renaissance in Happy Valley – Wisconsin goes under the radar.  But, why?  Wisconsin lost three games last year – all by 7 to the three teams mentioned. This year their schedule is a joke by all standards. Before playing Michigan at home November 18th, their toughest challenges are road games against BYU and Nebraska.  The only game they might lose is Michigan or if they’re caught sleep-walking, their end of the year road trip to Minnesota.  Either way, they’ll keep it interesting until the season wraps up.

The Pick: Over

Vanderbilt Commodores: 6 Wins

Vegas has Vandy at 6 wins.  Honestly, I just can’t see it.  Some folks saw the improvement the offense made late last season as something that will continue into this season, but I don’t.  The offensive line is probably the worse in the SEC and they have a middle of the defense that will force their safety Ryan White to leave his average-at-best corner backs in one on one coverage.  In a game of spades, Vanderbilt is the annoying partner that says “Four and two possibles,” — count those possibles as losses.

The Pick: Under

Oregon Ducks: 8 Wins

Oregon ranked 117th in total defense last year and are now in the midst of going back to a 3-4 scheme (gathered that info from Lindy’s Sports).  Eight is a very tall number for a team that finished with four wins last year.  Vegas is betting on the public that is still in love with the gimmick offense that gets dressed in new garb every week.  Tough conference roads games against Stanford, UCLA and Washington will make it tough for them and home games against Nebraska, Washington State and California won’t be much welcomed at all.  Much like Vandy, I see the Ducks sliding right underneath their magic number, but it doesn’t matter if they miss 8 wins by 1 or 6 games, as long as it stays under (which it will) that’s all that matters.

The Pick: Under

Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

Twitter @GeeSteelio


Alabama and Clemson, Part Two

The Alabama Crimson Tide enter this championship game as a seven-point favorite over the Clemson Tigers.  It’s a rematch of last year’s National Championship game, which saw the Crimson Tide beat the Tigers 45-40.  Tigers’ quarterback Deshaun Watson had an amazing game against the Crimson Tide’s defense throwing for 405 yards and 4 touchdown passes.  His ability to weave and dodge pass rushers while keeping his eyes down the field became a hindrance to the Bama defense and Saban even admitted later that Watson gave them all they could handle.

Nick Saban’s focus will be on how to NOT get played by Watson for the second year in a row.

Speaking of Nick Saban, he pulled a pretty petty and surprising move before the championship game by “letting go” of his offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin.  Kiffin had accepted the head coaching job at Florida Atlantic and Saban believed that it was best for Kiffin and Alabama to split.  Kiffin has been nothing short of amazing as Bama’s offensive coordinator and for the first time in a long time, maybe it’s time for the general public to question the ego, and pettiness within that ego of Nick Saban.   Keep in mind, Alabama has had a true freshman quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who although has been commended for his extreme maturity to go along with his talent – has been comfortable in Kiffin’s offensive scheme.  Saban should be smart-enough to tell new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkasian “stick to the script,” in order to keep the familiarity within this offense.

Clemson’s defense has been good  this year allowing only 18.4 points per game.  They have held opponents to a 52% completion percentage and have nabbed 20 interceptions throughout the season. Their rushing defense has been equally as impressive allowing only 3.5 yards a carry.  That number will be challenged by an Alabama offense that charges ahead at 5.7 yards a carry which gives Bama the advantage in what I call a “clash average” of 4.6 yards a carry.

Alabama has had the best defense all year in college football allowing under 12 points a game and holding the opposition to two-yards a carry.  Clemson’s offense averages 40 yards a game (as does Alabama) but it’s the battle up-front where Clemson hasn’t seen power like this all year.

As the story was last year, Clemson will rely on Watson to keep the Tigers marching up and down the field for four quarters of football.  Saban-coached-defenses have issues with mobile quarterbacks as Watson proved last year, and as Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel proved in years prior.  This Crimson Tide defensive unit has NFL talent all around(about five or these kids are projected to go in the first two rounds of the NFL draft) and they also have proved to keep their emotions in check, never getting too high and never getting down on themselves.

Although this Bama defensive unit is stout, Clemson has on offense two players who are slated as the best in their respective positions come the NFL draft.  Aside from Deshaun Watson being the number one quarterback prospect by some “experts” — Mike Williams, is without a doubt the number one receiving talent in college today.   Williams brings to this championship game his 84 receptions, 10 touchdowns and 1171 yards on the season.

For Nick Saban, this is one of his best teams he’s coached at Alabama (that is saying A LOT).  On the other side of the ball is a coach in Dabo Swinney who has built up the Clemson program as one of the strongest in the nation.  Dabo has built a culture there and has been recruiting out of his mind, producing NFL talent on both sides of the ball.  The one thing that eludes him is a National Championship.  This time around, he gets a rematch against arguably the greatest coach of all-time in Saban.  For Saban, this is an opportunity to repeat as champion and further solidify his legendary status.

The motivation for both teams will be high, as it should be.

The over/under for this game is 51.  Take the over.  The 7 point spread favors the underdog, but Bama is just too strong and can wear out any team in college football, even one as talented as Clemson.


G.W. Gras

Twitter @GeeSteelio

Beating Vegas: Bowl Season, Part Three

Here it is folks, the last installment of Beating Vegas, until next season.  We had one tremendous year here at Beating Vegas, and we hope you were entertained along the way as you were pocketing money from our College Football locks, week after week.  Here goes the rest of the College Bowl game picks against the spread. . .

Liberty Bowl: TCU vs Georgia

This game is set as a “pick” and for good reason.  Both of these squads show little to no separation in the their points scored to points allowed ratios and both have a tendency to not show up what-so-ever at times.  Both were projected to make strides and both disappointed thoroughly.

The Pick: The Under at 48.5

Sun Bowl: UNC +3 vs Stanford

Stanford’s star running back Christian McCaffrey is sitting this one out to prepare for the upcoming NFL draft, while UNC’s star QB Mitch Trubisky is playing this game to prove he can be a first round talent in the upcoming draft.  And while Trubisky would have to look ridiculously bad to not get drafted at-least in the second round (due to a generally weak QB class. . .) it’s wide-out Ryan Switzer who Stanford should be concerned with.  Switzer has notched over 1,000 receiving yards and is nine catches shy of 100 for the year.  Stanford’s pass defense has looked okay this year, but against the two best passing offenses they faced all year (Washington and Washington State), the Cardinal lost both in blow out fashion.   Stanford’s best weapon is gone, it’s been a season to forget and they are going up against a strong aerial attack in UNC, with players looking to prove they deserve high draft consideration in a few months.   Take the points and the motivation.

The Pick: UNC +3

Arizona Bowl: South Alabama +13 vs Air Force

Air Force is a favorite here at “Beating Vegas.”  Their running game is amazing and that’s all they usually need to keep teams in check or be great as double digit underdogs.  This year they go up against South Alabama, who brings a rush defense that allows 4.9 yards a carry, and a pass defense that allows only 15 completions a game.  Going against an Air Force team that rushes at 5 yards a carry and completes only 5 passes a game, this South Alabama team will be able to sell out and blitz most of the day and keep the wide outs of Air Force in single coverage.  It will be an uneventful game for the most part, but South Alabama will be playing hard and will keep it close.

The Pick: South Alabama +13

Orange Bowl: Florida State +6.5 vs Michigan

In what is usually hostile territory for Florida State, playing in Miami may be a home-field advantage for the Seminoles, who’s fans will certainly find their way within the state to get tickets to the Orange Bowl.  Florida State had a disappointing season and even then, they put up 35 points a game and won 9 games in the competitive ACC.  The Seminoles have won six of their last seven games and were able to put up 45 and 31 points against tough defenses like Boston College and Florida, respectively.  Michigan’s calling card all year has been their defense, which allowed 12.5 points per game and were well above average in rush and pass defenses.  Michigan’s offense has been actually better than advertised, but it could be a product of the defense putting the offense in great position. . . Michigan doesn’t have the fire-power on offense though to get passed the athleticism of the Florida State defense, and Florida State does not have the strength up front to go four quarters against Michigan. . .

The Pick: the Under at 52.5

Citrus Bowl: LSU -3 vs Louisville

This actually might be one of the better bowl match-ups and this one is all about the key word in bowl season: “motivation.”  NGSC’s own Kyle Nash will be in Orlando, Florida on New Year’s Eve covering the event (follow him on twitter @TheSOTG).  It’s there where Mr. Nash, will see first hand, Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson take on an LSU defense that holds opponents to 3.4 yards a carry and less than 55% completion percentage.  Louisville was able to handle Boston College and Wake Forest defenses with no problem, then lost in back to back games against Houston and rival Kentucky.  Pound for pound Bobby Petrino is a better coach than Ed Ogeron, but Petrino is the type that will look passed an opponent and not care much about this bowl game, considering where his team was position earlier this year.  LSU is a handful, and even with running back Leonard Fournette sitting this one out, Derrius Guice has been their guy – rushing for 8 yards a carry, rushing for over 1200 yards and totaling 14 touchdowns.  LSU’s attack is pretty one dimensional, but they come to play every week, where Louisville has proven this season to not – even in games that matter like the one against Houston. . .

The Pick: LSU -3

Taxslayer Bowl: Kentucky +3 vs Georgia Tech

Can’t understand why anyone would be motivated to play in the Taxslayer Bowl, but Kentucky’s win over Louisville to end the season may have them on an incredible high coming into this one.  Georgia Tech runs at 5.5 yards a carry and Kentucky’s defense allows 5.1 – this would tell the story that Georgia Tech should plod along all day against the Wildcats and they should. But the same could be said the other way around as well. . . There is just nothing for Georgia Tech in this game, they’d rather be preparing for next semester’s classes than play in this bowl game.

The Pick: Kentucky +3

Outback Bowl: Iowa +3 vs Florida

The over/under in this game is set at 40.5 which should tell you the kind of chances both of these offenses have at scoring against each other.  Florida has the better athletes and the speed to tear the corners off of Iowa.  All Florida needs is two big plays to win this, and Iowa won’t get any.

The Pick: Florida -3

Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan +7.5 vs Wisconsin

The thing to look for in this game is that if Wisconsin falls behind early, they DO NOT have the offense to keep up with Western Michigan.  Western Michigan went undefeated this year and went completely snubbed by the poll-voters.  Going undefeated and beating a team that many love for their tenacity in Wisconsin will go a long way for this program.  Wisconsin showed against Penn State in the Big 10 championship game how suspect they looked against the deep pass, and Western Michigan has a quarterback in Zach Terrell who is one of the best in the nation (70.8 completion percentage, 32 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and throws for 260 yards a game).

The Pick: Western Michigan +7.5

Rose Bowl: USC -6.5 vs Penn State

Interesting match up here as Penn State stands at #5 in the rankings, literally on the outside, looking in at the College Football Playoff and USC was arguably the second best team in college football once they made a change at the quarterback position.  Last time these two played each other in the Rose Bowl was in 2009 and Penn State lost 38-24.  That score doesn’t even put into perspective how USC really controlled the game from start to finish.  USC is a stout team from front to back, and with quarterback Sam Donald, the expectations for them next season should be the College Football Playoff.  For Penn State, it’s been a fun and inspiring season of a program pulling themselves out of the darkness and back into the college football world as a legit tradition again.  There is something stirring in Penn State’s future, but for now, lets not get ahead of ourselves.

The Pick: USC -6.5

Sugar Bowl: Auburn +3 vs Oklahoma

Nothing says “Sugar Bowl” like an Auburn verse Oklahoma match-up.  No, that is not sarcasm, that is the truth.  Because it is the “Sugar Bowl” the players from these two regions know the history and tradition behind it.  Oklahoma is where most of the money will go and the over/under at 63.5 tells you that Vegas expects this one to be close and high scoring.  This is the type of game to just stay away from at all costs.  Sometimes the smartest play is no play at all and here I’m waving the white flag.

The Pick: stay away

Playoff Semi-Final: Ohio State -3 vs Clemson

Both of these teams have been highly disappointing this season.  Which is weird to say because they are both in the college football playoff.  But for Urban Meyers Buckeyes, they can say all they want about what kind of leader J.T. Barrett is at quarterback, but the truth is, his decision making has been a hindrance at times.  The same can be said for Heisman candidate Deshaun Watson and his Clemson Tigers, who would’ve had a perfect season if not for a one point loss against Pitt. Whoever wins this game is going to get destroyed by Alabama when it’s all said and done so ultimately this game doesn’t matter – but for these two coaches, Urban Meyer of Ohio State and Dabo Sweeney of Clemson – one is looking to add to his already legendary status, while another is trying to get back into a Championship position which he let slip away last year.   This game is a legit flip-of-the-coin and for that reason, go with the Tigers.

The Pick: Clemson +3

Playoff Semi-Final: Alabama -14 vs Washington

Chris Peterson of Washington has been one of the most influential and consistent coaches of the last decade.  For all of those years at Boise State being snubbed by the BCS to get a shot in the Championship Game or by a loss that derailed the Boise State Broncos’ season – he has made it, with the Washington Huskies.  He has made it, that is, with a shot at the title.  Unfortunately for him, he is playing against one of Nick Saban’s best teams in Alabama.   14 points seems like a lot for a Washington team that puts up 44.5 points per game, but this Bama team allows 11 and puts up 40 of their own on average. . . I said for the last month the only team in college football that can go head to head with Alabama is USC, and the Trojans ended up beating Washington 26-13.  The Washington offensive line will be dominated.

The Pick: Alabama -14

Bonus: Alabama at the moment is -350 to win it all, while the field is +250.   You should know where I’m “rolling” with this one. . .


Good Luck and Wager Wisely — once again thank you for coming to Beating Vegas week after week.  See you guys next season!

G.W. Gras

twitter @GeeSteelio

Beating Vegas: Championship Weekend

The numbers have been checked for this year and Beating Vegas has a sixty-percent winning percentage for the college football regular season.  Those are pretty impressive numbers considering this is a free service for those who visit the NGSCSports.Com website. . .  Much like rivalry week (where we went 2-1), the weekend of conference championships can be tricky as well.  This week we gathered up the information to give you an edge in the conference championship games.  Oh, what is that Big 12, you still don’t have a conference championship game?  Yeah, we know. . . losers.

Florida +24 vs Alabama (at the Georgia Dome)


You gotta know where I’m going here, right?  Although we are all sure that if Bama somehow lost to the Gators in the SEC Championship game they’d still be in the College Football Playoff – we know this is a rivalry and Saban wants to enforce his will.  Statistically, one could make the argument that Florida’s defense is better than Alabama’s – but look at Florida’s losses this year:  Florida State and Arkansas forced some serious rush attacks against Florida who lost those games 31-13 and 31-10 respectively; and their loss against Tennessee saw them give up 35 points in the second half.  .  .Sure they won a 16-10 thriller against LSU, but the difference between LSU and those other teams is that there is absolutely zero threat of a pass play coming out of that offensive system. . . Auburn was able to cover the spread last week against Bama because they have the one thing Bama struggles to have an answer for : a mobile quarterback – that won’t be an issue this week.  In the SEC, Florida’s offense is fourth from last; they struggle to pass and although some think they run the ball exceptionally well, they are pretty much just “good” at it.  There is no need to get into specifics with Bama’s stats because they execute everything on both sides of the ball above average.   Bama is 8-3 against the spread this year and didn’t cover the number last week against Auburn when the line moved up to 20.5 so expect a cover here as the Crimson Tide continue their dominant 2016.

The Pick: Alabama -24

San Diego State -6  at Wyoming


Nobody is more surprised than Wyoming that they are in the WAC championship game, but the truth is their offense has been a force to be reckoned with all season long.  Their running back Brian Hill has totaled 1674 yards this season at a clip of 5.5 yards a carry.  Wyoming’s quarterback Josh Allen has found a favorite target in senior wide-out Tanner Gentry who has 11 touchdowns this year coupled with 1132 receiving yards.  With an offense that puts up 38 points a game, wins should be coming easy, but that’s not the case when your defense gives up 35.5 points per contest. . . San Diego State’s strength on offense is their rushing attack that racks up 6.1 yards a carry; it also happens to be their strength on defense which only allows 3.3 yards a carry.  Wyoming held another good rushing team, UNLV in check earlier this season.  Last time these two teams played, San Diego State gave up two 30 yard touchdown plays against Wyoming – this isn’t something that happens to a defense which usually only yields 200 passing yards against them a game.  Expect San Diego State to control this game at the line of scrimmage (especially after calculating what we, at Beating Vegas call the “clash average” which was overwhelming pointing the favor of the Aztecs at 7 yards per carry- Wyoming is just happy to be here.

The Pick: San Diego State -6


Penn State +3 vs Wisconsin (at Lucas Oil Field in Indiana)


There is an old rule that most intelligent gamblers go by: never bet on or against your favorite team.  I’ll be transparent here and let you all know : I am a Penn State fan and have been, for the better part of 20 years now, and as a fan – it’s great to see where this program is at (and heading) after the disgrace that became this university. . . With that being said, this year’s Big Ten title game is a “classic” black and blue styled game.  Both teams are playing this game for the sake of Big 10 champion and not much else afterwards as it seems the college playoff committee has decided that Ohio State is in the playoff regardless, and these two are on the outside looking in.  Both teams run the ball well, both teams stop the run well – but for Wisconsin who allow an amazing 3.3 yards a rush – they are going up against the Big 10 Conference offensive player of the year in Penn State’s running back Saquon Barkley.  Barkley has run for over 1200 yards and has come up with 17 total touchdowns on the season.  Barkley struggled early in the season against two good rushing defenses though in Minnesota  and Michigan (averaging 3.2 and 3.9 yards in those games, respectively).   Wisconsin has the edge on defense, but when your offense can only muster about 13 points a game anyway, the wins come ugly.  NOT saying Wisconsin will win this contest – but what Beating Vegas is telling you is to watch this be a low scoring affair.

The Pick: The Under at 47

Four Game Teaser of the Week:  Clemson -1;  Redskins +14.5;  Alabama -12;  San Diego State/Wyoming over at 51


Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

twitter @GeeSteelio

Beating Vegas: Rivalry Week

We were two-backdoor-points away from being perfect last week, thanks to Washington letting up late in the game against Arizona State – BUT – two out of three ain’t too shabby as we continue to beat Vegas this year.   Thanksgiving week brings us the beginning of the holidays, good food, family, friends and more importantly an entire week of football games.  Monday through Sunday we got something going on – but here at Beating Vegas, we’ll steer you into the right direction of which games to pay attention to. . .

LSU -4 at Texas A&M


Thanksgiving Day ain’t just for the big boys.  While the NFL gets all the attention on Turkey Day, the SEC is not to be ignored.  Slating LSU against Texas A&M worked out to be a good game that should garner some attention on the holiday.  LSU is quite possibly the best four loss team in the country.  All four losses come to ranked teams and they loss those games by 2, 5, 10 and 6 points.  Their brand of football is an SEC standard – of dominating the line of scrimmage.  This is exemplified by their offensive line that pushes the ball at 6.2 yards a carry and a defensive front that limits the opposition to 3.4 yards a carry.  Usually a team that is so one dimensional on offense can get out-played by an athletic defense – but their one dimension is so good, it really doesn’t factor in.  Texas A&M looked like a “sleeper team” in the SEC (if their is such a thing) but the pressure got to them and they’ve been on a downward spiral.  Before last week’s lack-luster 23-10 win over UTSA, they lost three of their last four. Team’s that beat LSU usually have a good run defense – A&M’s is “decent” when at it’s best, allowing 4.1 yards a carry (working out a “clash-average” of 5.15 yards in the favor of LSU (yes, “Clash-Average” is something I made up, and it seems to help make sense of things).  LSU is coming off a tough loss to a good opponent and is playing with a lot of fire, A&M as of late,  plays as if they’re scared of their ow shadow.

The Pick: LSU -4

Auburn +17.5 at Alabama


Keeping it with the SEC, here is a rivalry that is downright ugly.   The “Iron Bowl” has seen these two teams slug it out 80 times. Alabama leads searies 44–35–1, and currently is on a two game winning streak against Auburn.   Bama is by far the team to beat in the country and it really is going to take some kind of effort to beat them. . . They are number one in the SEC in total defense allowing 11.4 points a game and number one in total offense, scoring 40.3 points a game.  They are annoyingly good at everything they do.  Auburn is kinda-sorta the lower case version of Bama this year – and although Auburn fans will find that extremely offensive – it’s not a bad thing.  Auburn is scoring 34 points a game and allowing 14 — Auburn’s rush defense is allowing 3.4 yards a rush – which is great to see (Bama’s defense allows 2.2) and when it comes to pass defense, they are pretty much neck and neck – and you’d be splitting hairs to give the advantage to Alabama.  This is a rivalry game and Auburn knows what’s at stake for Bama if they lose.  17.5 might be too much even if Auburn, wasn’t good this year – but the “Baby Bama Tigers” will give Saban and his Crimson Tide fits in this one.

The Pick: Auburn +17.5

Purdue +20 at Indiana


Oh Indiana, it’s pretty obvious what you are.  You’re a team that’s good enough to beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones.   It’s pretty black and white when you look at their wins and losses. . . BUT aside from all that, they need one more win to make it to some useless bowl game that will generate money for the university and will probably be played in front of a crowd of hundreds. . . BUT luckily for them, the last team on their schedule this season is an awful Purdue squad.  Isn’t it fitting that we talk about Purdue, and it’s Thanksgiving week?  . . . Okay. .  . Well the Purdue Boilermakers are dead last in total defense in the Big 10 allowing 39.4 points a game, that says a lot considering they are in a conference with such abominations as Rutgers, Illinois and Maryland. Purdue throws the ball a lot and leads the Big 10 in passing yards, mostly because they play from behind and only average 3.4 yards a carry.  They’re 23 touchdown passes are matched by their 23 interceptions on the year. . .Indiana’s offense is very similar and for the same reasons, except this is a team that has shown a lot of fight the last two weeks.  They were leading late against Penn State but let up, and had Michigan sweat out a 20-10 victory against them last week.  They are feeling confident, even in their losses and although 20 is a big number, Indiana is a team that can’t stop a nose bleed and when they do try to stop their nose from bleeding they end up poking out their eyes.


The Pick: Indiana -20

Four Game Teaser of the Week: (by the way, thanks UTAH for ruing it last week): Redskins +19; Air Force +21.5; Wisconsin -2.5 and USC -4.5

Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

twitter @GeeSteelio

Beating Vegas: Rollin’ With the Tide

Last week was the first time this season that the college picks went 1 for 3 – but things were all good as we scored perfectly with our NFL locks.  This week, looks like one where you have to keep faith in the hot hands and pay close attention to any trends developing.  We’ve been putting in work this season for you guys so keep checking for this column weekly and visit mybookie.ag so you can beat the NCAA and NFL odds. . .


Cincinnati Bengals +8 at New England Patriots


Everybody in New England is still riding high on Tom Brady’s comeback performance last week against the Cleveland Browns.  Brady threw for over 300 yards with three touchdowns – but this week he’s going against a real team, and a real defense in the Cincinnati Bengals. . . eh, is he really?  The Bengals performance last week was pretty much fitting considering how they’ve underwhelmed at the beginning of this season.  The Bengals defense allows teams to complete passes at a rate of 60% and are allowing 4.4 yards a rush.  The Patriots have the kind of offense set up to do both, especially with Brady back and looking fresh-as-ever.  The Bengals might be able to take away the threat of the two tight-end sets the Pats love to sit in, but that only means the Pats will go to a power running game if the linebackers and safeties are paying too much attention to Gronkowski and Bennett.  This is going to be a problem for every team in the league this year against the Pats.  It’s at New England and it’s a single digit spread – smart money is riding the Pats right now.  How can it not be?

The Pick: Patriots -8

San Francisco 49ers -7.5 at Buffalo Bills


The elephant in the room is that the 49ers are second to last in rushing yards allowed per game with 146.8 and the Bills are ranked third in the NFL in rushing offense (5.1 ypc and 137 yards per game).  Also, after having a miserable season opener against Baltimore, Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been doing what is asked of him and more (sometimes).  They are riding a three game winning streak in which their last two games included beating New England and Los Angeles on the road.  Now they’re back home and waiting on a 49ers team flying in from the west coast.  It might not be blistering cold weather they’ll be flying into but none-the-less, that jet lag and a 60% chance of rain on Sunday (yup, I checked) – could be enough to spell doom for Chip Kelly’s offense.  San Francisco knew when they played Arizona last week, they would get a heavy dosage of running back David Johnson, and yet they still couldn’t do anything to stop him.  Bills running back Lesean McCoy is averaging 5.3 yards a carry while quarterback Tyrod Taylor is averaging over 6 yards a clip.  The 49ers are a one dimensional offense, and that one dimension – their running game – is overrated, averaging less than four yards a carry.  Say what you want about Rex Ryan but if you’re a one dimensional offense and that one dimension is not impressive – his defense will eat you alive.

The Pick: Bills -7.5


Alabama -13 at Tennessee


Tennessee entered this season (again) with much hype.  They have the coach, the depth and even the experience at key positions on the field.  What has that gotten them so far?  Sloppy wins against two non-BCS conference teams and miracle victories in back to back weeks against Florida and Georgia.  Butch Jones’ team finally ran out of luck last week and lost to Texas A&M 45-38.  On the other hand, Alabama has been consistently looking like the best team in college football since week one. The fact that Vegas has them as a double digit favorite against a team as athletic as Tennessee and in front of a hostile crowd of over 100,000 people, says a lot.  Unlike Jones in Tennessee, Nick Saban has complete control of the emotions and focus of his roster.  Last week’s victory over Arkansas saw a final score of 49-30 and it really wasn’t even that close.  After the Crimson Tide were up by 25 points, they were  effortlessly going shot for shot against the Razorbacks.  Tennessee’s potential never comes to play – Alabama comes to play every week.  Anything less than a double digit victory is a failure in coach Saban’s eyes.  On average, Alabama scores eleven more points per game and allows eleven less points per game than Tennessee.  The Vols are allowing over 180 rushing yards a game, which spells trouble against a Tide team that is averaging 5.7 yards a carry.  Saban is a perfect 9-0 against the Vols, so that works in your favor as well. . .

The Pick: Alabama -13

Southern Mississippi +24.5 at LSU


Interesting game right here and maybe LSU’s legacy and SEC ties are giving them more respect than they currently deserve.  Or, maybe LSU is still a dominant force to those from the outside looking in on the SEC.  Whatever it is, this is a huge line favoring a team coming off of a 42-7 victory over Missouri two weeks ago. There are no surprises with LSU.  They will play tough defense and run the ball.  That’s all they pretty much can do because they have a non existent passing attack.  Even without their stud running back Leornard Fournette in the game, the Tigers were able to wreck havoc behind this offensive line with their running back combo of Derrius Guice and Darrell Williams (who combined for 293 rushing yards against Missouri).  Southern Mississippi isn’t the team they’ll be throwing against anyway, as this feisty unit still hasn’t allowed over 1000 yards passing against them after six games.  Teams only average a total of 11 receptions a game against this unit as well.  The run defense is average at best, allowing 4.5 yards a carry, but they’ll no doubt be leaving the wideouts in single coverage.  Southern Mississippi’s offense is ranked 12th in yards per game in the country, posting up 530 yards a game with a very balanced and strong offensive attack.  This is by far their biggest test of the year on both sides of the ball.  This is not a typical SEC non-conference-cupcake opponent for LSU.

The Pick: Southern Mississippi +24.5

Four Game Teaser of the Week: Giants/Ravens under 56.5; Ohio State +1.5;  Alabama -1 and Patriots +3.5

Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

twitter @GeeSteelio

Beating Vegas: “ACC On Fleek”

Welcome back to Beating Vegas!  This is the weekly column on NGSCSports.com that helps you gives you the edge over Vegas during the football season!  Last season we went just below sixty percent against the spread and this season we’re only looking to help you out even more!

Tulane +17 at Wake Forest


The Green Wave of Tulane are looking at a new head coach in Willie Fritz.  There are questions at quarterback and in their defensive secondary but this is a game that will be won and lost at the point of attack.  Fritz is a coach that loves smash mouth football and came out of practices raving about all four of his running backs.  On the other side of things the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest looked better than their record shows but when watching the tape it’s not as much their effort that kept them in some games, but their opponents lack of effort.  Wake Forest is a doormat in the ACC and it’s opponents treat them that way, usually day dreaming their way to a victory.  Wake had three wins last year: a three point win over Army, a three point win over Boston College and a 41-3 win over ELON (whoever they are) so seeing them beat a good coach by 17 points is a ridiculous notion.  — Last year Tulane covered against Navy, Memphis and Army as  road underdogs – this should be no problem.


The Pick: Tulane +17


Georgia Tech -3 at Boston College


This match up features the Yellow Jackets against the Eagles in Dublin, Ireland.  Boston College was one of the three college sleepers I wrote about earlier this Summer on NGSCSports.com
and folks should expect to see A LOT of them in “Beating Vegas” this year. . .  Paul Johnson has been at Georgia Tech for 19 years now and his time may be coming to an end.  Last year they pulled off only three wins, although somehow managing a  win against Florida State in there but they could never shut the door on close games.  Boston College had the same issue but the reason was a lot more clear.  The Boston College defense is a top ten group, but the offense might’ve been the absolute worst.  This year they have Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles, who isn’t breaking any records, but should have the ability to stretch the field and add some other dimension to the Eagles’ attack.  The Eagles will win about 8 games this year and this will be one of the them.

The Pick: Boston College +3


North Carolina +2.5 at Georgia


Sure, Georgia is loaded with NFL talent and sure Georgia is expected to make some kind of noise.  And yes, we all understand this is a new regime, this isn’t the Mark Richt era where “choking” had become tradition.  BUT – We’ve heard this story before.  Things to expect?  Georgia will win.  Things not to expect? Georgia’s QB (Grayson Lambert) to all of a sudden look like a possible first-round draft pick.  Lambert is limited, the offensive line has been juggled around and this team’s offense is predicated on running back Nick Chubb being 100% at the start of the season.  Georgia’s strength is in it’s defense which will be going up against a Tar Heel squad that is no stranger in putting up points.  New quarterback Mitch Trubisky has been waiting for his turn and it’s now.   He’s got weapons at his disposal and the Tar Heels will not go quietly in this one.  This one will be a second half where the Tar Heels get some garbage time touchdowns and make the OVER happen.  It’s okay to feel confident in saying the Tar Heels will put up 28 points in a loss to Georgia.

The Pick: The Over at 56


Ole Miss +4.5 at Florida State


Why couldn’t this game be LAST season?  It would’ve had better match ups all down the line ups, but this year we get an Ole Miss team that is missing some first round talent and missing a lot of key talent from last year’s squad.  Quarterback Chad Kelly has some promise, but he’ll be going up against a Florida State defense that is quick and nasty.  The Seminoles are like Alabama in how they recruit now.  It doesn’t matter who they lose, they are able to reload quickly.  This game is on Monday Night which will be fun, but the Seminoles will be the ones having all the fun.  Expect Florida State to ROLL in the second half.

The Pick: Florida State -4.5

If You Must: Kansas State versus Stanford – the Under at 48.5 is the way to go here “if you must.”  Two good defenses, Stanford will keep it on the ground, especially with a new quarterback under center, while Kansas State might hang around with tough nose play for at least the first half.  Pretty uneventful to watch, so yeah – the under seems legit

4 Game Teaser: Louisville -26.5, Alabama +.5, Florida State +7.5 and UCLA +15


Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

Twitter @GeeSteelio

Beating Vegas: Entry Seventeen

Every week during the football season, “The Heartthrob” G.W. Gras will be giving out his college and professional football “best bets” against the spread.  The wise guys in Vegas live comfortably – it’s time we all get on their level.

Judging Last Week: I have no problem being wrong about USC last week because I’m pretty sure 95% of America was with me on that one. . .

The Division 1-AA Championship Game:

Jacksonville State (+4) vs North Dakota State:


Despite two close wins against Chattanoga and a near upset of a “then ranked” Auburn team in over-time – The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have been winning with ease week to week.   They caught the attention of the college football world in that game against Auburn, in which they exposed what the Auburn Tigers really were and we were introduced to senior quarterback Eli Jenkins.  Jenkins is a true dual-threat quarterback who has thrown for over 2700 yards and rushed for over 1000.  Jenkins along with stud running back Troymaine Pope (average 8.4 yards a carry and over 1700 rushing yards) lead a Gamecocks offense that is putting up 41 points a game.  The North Dakota State Bison have been the most popular team in Division 1-AA because of their recent run of dominance and because of the seemingly annual trip ESPN’s College Gameday makes out there to show love to the Bison.  The Bison have a very blue collar way of going about their business – they make minimal mistakes on offense and play hard nosed defense.   Both of these defenses allow less than 3.5 yards a rush and both defenses keep opponents throwing at a 50% completion rate.  This is a tricky one  because one group of people will see how Jacksonville State almost beat an SEC team in Auburn, while the other half will see a North Dakota State team which has been the media darling for the better part of five years.  The line is right where it should be, but bet on the defenses in this one.

The Pick: Take the UNDER at 58

The Green Bay Packers (+1) at the Washington Redskins


It may sound crazy, but although the Kansas City Chiefs are on a ten game winning streak, the hottest team in the league just may be the Washington Redskins, who are currently riding a four game winning streak.  The Redskins won the nearly laughable (and collapse-able) NFC East and are at home to one of the league’s most storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers, who are anything but “hot” entering the post season.  The funny thing about Green Bay, is that even in a “sub-par” season, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has still thrown for 33 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions in a season, where he struggled to find help from his supporting cast.  The offensive line disappointed many and the wide receiver core showed how “regular” they can be without Jordy Nelson out there.   Running back Eddie Lacy has been “okay” as of late, but with only 743 rushing yards on the season and only three touchdowns by way of the ground – it’s easy to tell that the hefty tailback has been running to IHOP more than to the end zone this year. . . Luckily for Lacy, Rodgers should find some spots in a Washington secondary that has given up 30 touchdowns this year, so it’s very likely that the running attack will be rarely displayed from Green Bay.  The Washington Redskins quarterback, Kirk Cousins is one of the better stories of this year.  He’s taken shots from the media and has looked at times – flat out, awful – as a quarterback, but something clicked in him this year and he has stood out as one of the better passers in the second half of the season.  Cousins leads the NFL in completion percentage at 69.5% and was 10 yards short of throwing for 4000.  He’s looking better in the pocket now and has a healthy Desean Jackson to help stretch the field.   Jordan Reed is a top five tight end who the league, who is a match up nightmare for any defense.  The Packers are by no means going to get blown out, which is why Vegas has them as a slight underdog.  Vegas is also betting that people will fall for the allure of the Packers over the Redskins, who up until this year have been one of the NFL’s punchlines.

The Bet:  Washington Redskins -1

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at the Houston Texans


This will be a defensive battle in the state of Texas, and if you’re trying to find out which team has the better defense, you’d be splitting hairs to do so.   Alex Smith is one of the most under appreciated players in the NFL, but he keeps throwing at high completion rates and he keeps NOT turning the ball over.  Oh yeah, remember when he didn’t throw a touchdown pass to a receiver all of last year?  Well that all changed once they gave him a receiver to spread the field with in Jeremy Maclin.  Maclin turned out a 1000 yard season with seven touchdowns and is still a dynamic play maker.  After stud running back, Jamal Charles went down for the season, coach Andy Reid was able to find life and stability in his backfield with Chacandrick West and Spencer Ware.   Meanwhile, the Texans haven seemingly used five different running backs this year who all pumped out average numbers, but it doesn’t matter because they will find ways to get the ball in wide out Deandre Hopkins’ hands as much as possible.  Hopkins is one of the most “un-coverable” guys in the league, who has a combination of speed, athleticism and hands that makes any quarterback comfortable tossing the ball up in the air.  Brian Hoyer will be that quarterback, and after starting, being benched and starting again – he’s got to be happy that he’s a division winning quarterback with one of the best tools in the league to play with.   This game will be a chess match for all four quarters, as both teams are coached extremely well and for the most part are evenly matched.  Take the home team with the points though, especially because nobody has been enamored with the Texans this year.

The Pick: The Texans +4

If You Must: Even if you don’t watch/like college football, how are you going to NOT watch the National Championship.  The Clemson Tigers have finally made it over the humps that have stumped them in the past and are the number one ranked team in the country and even with that, they are underdog to Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide.  Clemson has speed and spread formations that have given Saban’s teams fits before, but Saban is too smart to be beat by the same tricks again.   Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is a smart quarterback and a “gamer” who won’t be intimidated by the Crimson’s Tides blitz packages – expect Clemson to slow down the blitz with screen passes and quick slants early.  Alabama is driven by the playing style and over-all “awesomeness” of Heisman Trophy Winner, Derrick Henry but the Tide are actually a pretty well balanced offense.  On average, Alabama puts up 208 rushing yards and 214 passing yards a game.  This should an interesting match up because Clemson can defend both the pass and run very well.  Alabama makes it impossible to run against them, and if Clemson has to be one dimensional the whole game, it won’t bode well for them.  Clemson will get some scores in because they have way too much talent but in the end, Alabama -7 might be the way to go. 

Not enough to make me want to play with the lines this week to throw in a “teaser of the week” but as always, Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

twitter @GeeSteelio